According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) the country is likely to get more rain than it was originally forecasted in April.
Rainfall would be ‘normal’ andaround 98% of the Long Period Average(LPA), the IMD said in an update. This is 2% more than the 96% or ‘near normal’ rain it had forecast in April.
The LPA is a 50-year average of the monsoon rains in India.
In the update, the IMD also said rains in July and August, the most important monsoon months for the kharif crops, would be 96% and 99% respectively, of what was normal.
El Nino would be much weaker than anticipated.
The El Nino – characterised by surface waters of the equatorial Pacific warming up by more than half a degree – is known to dry up monsoon rain every six out of 10 years.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is said to buffer the impact of El Nino and contribute to better rains.
The IOD is a swing in surface temperatures that turns the western Indian Ocean alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.)
In April 2017, the IMD shifted to using a new monsoon forecast system, called a dynamical model that works by supercomputers simulating the weather and extrapolating it.
It plans to make this as the base for all future forecasts, ranging from short-term weekly forecasts to the trajectory of the four-month- long monsoon.
However, for its June 2017 update, the IMD chose to rely on its workhorse statistical model that forecasts the monsoon based on six meteorological parameters.
The dynamical model, according to the IMD statement, showed monsoon rains to be 89 cm or 100% of the LPA. “In April, both models showed the same. It’s good for computing the all-India figure but not yet good at capturing the regional spread,” said Mr. Rajeevan. “In the next few years, we hope to move entirely into the dynamical mode.
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