Pros and cons of basing policies of 5 years plan

Importance of statistics in framing policies

Why India is dependent on statistics more than other developing countries?

It is so large that trying to get a hold of the immensity of the problem and the potential solutions does require thinking in terms of statistics.

Statistics is an area that could help the country and young people express their talents.

India had changed dramatically after 1948. But some parts were not changing dramatically.

The speed of industry was different & this is where statistics enhance the development

Why India needs another statistical revolution?

Indian state is perhaps much more data-rich than it has ever been before, with detailed biometric data about an overwhelming majority of its citizens available through the Aadhaar system.

It will soon have detailed records of company-level commercial transactions through the Goods and Services Tax Network (GSTN).

Yet, in many other ways, its statistical systems are failing to fulfil the needs of 21st century policymaking, with even basic data on industrial output, and gross domestic product, or GDP, being routinely questioned by policymakers and analysts.

The history of statistics in India is in some ways a history of the Indian nation-building project itself. Although collection of economic statistics in the country is recorded as far back as Kautilya’s Arthashastra itself, modern statistics began life in the country only during the British Raj. 

 

 

 

But now it is not advisable to plan five years ahead and stick with it no matter what happens. Now people want to make plans five years ahead but then change them in three months so that you can adapt to changes.

Because there is  easier access to data, faster results as well as a fast changing environment.

How to make data more robust?

The best data on a national level are data that are gathered continuously under the same definition. So that we can realistically see what is the change rather than a change that has come only because someone started counting differently.

Advantages

  • The rational approach to decisions is based on scientifically obtained data that allow informed decision-making, reducing the chances of errors, distortions, assumptions, guesswork, subjectivity, and all major causes for poor or inequitable judgments. Such an information and knowledge based approach promotes consistent and high quality decisions, and reduces the risk and uncertainties associated with decisions.
  • The rational method infuses the decision-making process with discipline, consistency, and logic.
  • It is a step-by-step approach that requires defining problem, identifying the weighing and decision criteria, listing out the various alternatives, deliberating the present and future consequences of each alternative, and rating each alternative on each criterion. Such a sequential approach allows the decision maker to arrive at the optimal decision.

Disadvantage

  • The rational decision making process requires careful consideration and deliberation of data; this takes time, making this method unsuitable for quick-decisions.
  • In the age of fast-paced changes, seizing the opportunity at the spur of the moment plays a big part in success, and the rational model does not live up to this task.
  • Moreover, delay in making and implementing a decision may result in dilution of the perceived benefit of such an alternative, for the benefits may accrue only when taken at that time. As such, this model finds use mostly in making long-term and policy decisions rather than short-term or floor level operational decisions.

    Rational decision-making is steeped in conservatism, and errs on the side of caution. Many a time, the company makes it big when managers or leaders follow their gut instincts to take a gamble and seize an opportunity.

  • Similarly, many times success depends on being the pioneer in the field, or the first to launch a new and untested product, which may find wide acceptance. Limiting decisions to analysis of available data may impede such approaches. The unavailability of past tends or information about such new products or opportunities causes rational decision makers to opt for more secure and conventional options.

 

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